5 days ago
Milei Wins Second Upgrade by Moody's on Easing FX Controls
(Bloomberg) -- Argentina's credit rating was upgraded by Moody's Ratings for a second time this year, with the agency citing the easing of currency controls and support from the International Monetary Fund.
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Moody's raised the country's credit score by two notches, to Caa1 from Caa3, on par with Egypt and Suriname, according to a statement on Thursday. The nation's outlook was changed to stable from positive.
The upgrade comes amid President Javier Milei's attempts to transform South America's second-largest economy. Strategists and analysts alike have lauded the libertarian's efforts to tamp down rampant inflation and reverse years of endemic budget deficits.
'The upgrade reflects the decrease in the risk of a credit event, as the gradual lifting of foreign exchange restrictions enables a transition toward a more robust foreign exchange regime anchored on building international reserve buffers,' Moody's said in a note.
Milei's policies have brought price increases to less than 2% a month, with annual inflation now at its lowest since 2020. He's also put the country on track for a primary surplus in 2025, the first in over 15 years, easing the debt burden. The economy returned to growth this year, expanding 7.7% in April, more than expected.
But Wall Street has cautioned that despite a new IMF program and more liberal exchange regime, Milei and his team need to amass more hard-currency reserves, something that authorities have pledged they won't do until the peso trades at around a level of 1,000 per dollar. It is currently above 1,200.
Another chief concern is whether Milei manages to expand his legislative support during midterm elections later this year. The vote is a key test of support for the administration's harsh belt-tightening campaign.
Argentina's dollar bonds underperformed their peers on Thursday before the upgrade was announced, with notes maturing in 2035 losing 0.6 cents on the dollar to trade at around 64 cents, according to indicative pricing data compiled by Bloomberg. The notes now yield 11.94%.
Moody's Ratings lifted Argentina's credit score one notch to Caa3 in January, and raised the outlook to positive from stable. Fitch Ratings then raised the nation to CCC+ from CCC in May. S&P Global Ratings affirmed its CCC rating in early February.
--With assistance from Nicolle Yapur.
(Updates with inflation figures in the fifth paragraph, bond prices in the eighth)
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